International Warning: Troika Sounds Alarm on South Sudan’s Deteriorating Security and Looming Risk of Renewed Civil War
Introduction: A Stark Warning from the Troika
On December 18, 2025, the governments of Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States—collectively known as the Troika—issued a joint statement expressing profound concern over the rapidly worsening security situation in South Sudan. As key guarantors and mediators of the country’s peace process, the Troika condemned ongoing armed attacks and urged South Sudan’s political leaders to immediately halt violence, adhere to the nationwide ceasefire, and resume high-level dialogue. The statement highlighted the country’s precarious position, warning that without urgent reversal, South Sudan risks plunging back into large-scale conflict, with devastating consequences for its people and regional stability.
This warning comes amid escalating clashes between forces loyal to the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Government (SPLM-IG), led by President Salva Kiir, and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), formerly headed by First Vice President Riek Machar, who has been under house arrest since early 2025. The Troika’s intervention underscores the fragility of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), signed over seven years ago with the hope of ending a brutal civil war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions.
The Full Text and Key Excerpts from the Troika Statement
The joint statement, released simultaneously from capitals in Oslo, London, and Washington, begins by reflecting on the optimism surrounding the R-ARCSS:
When the Revitalised Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) was signed just over seven years ago, it was hoped that it would bring peace after the country’s initial years of independence were scarred by conflict, including brutal violence against civilians.”
It then critiques the current reality:
“It does not live up to the name, with the principles of power sharing violated and no meaningful progress towards implementing the agreement. Public resources continue to be misused: public servant salaries are going unpaid and international donors are spending significantly more on delivering basic services to the people of South Sudan than the government is itself.”
The Troika pointed to economic decline:
At independence, South Sudan’s oil revenue made it a middle-income country. It is now the world’s poorest, and its most corrupt.”
The core appeal is direct and urgent:
For the good of the people of South Sudan and for the sake of regional stability, South Sudan’s leaders must urgently reverse course. All parties, especially SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO, must stop armed attacks and immediately return to the nationwide ceasefire and to sustained leader-level dialogue.”
Finally, it calls on broader international involvement:
All South Sudan’s friends and partners, and especially those neighbouring South Sudan who have the most to lose from the prospect of renewed large-scale conflict, should be united in their messaging – that enough is enough. South Sudan’s leaders must stop the current conflict and focus on restoring the trust of its people and the international community through concrete actions.”
Historical Context: From Hope to Stagnation
South Sudan’s independence in 2011 was celebrated as a triumph after decades of war with Sudan. However, ethnic and political tensions erupted into civil war in 2013, pitting forces loyal to President Kiir (a Dinka) against those of then-Vice President Machar (a Nuer). The conflict, marked by atrocities including ethnic massacres, sexual violence, and child recruitment, killed an estimated 400,000 people and displaced over 4 million.
The 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS) collapsed in 2016 when fighting resumed in Juba. This led to the revitalized version in 2018 (R-ARCSS), mediated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) with strong Troika support. The deal established a power-sharing transitional government, called for unified security forces, constitutional reforms, and elections.
Initial progress included Machar’s return as First Vice President in 2020. However, implementation has been chronically delayed. Key benchmarks—such as unifying the army, drafting a permanent constitution, and establishing transitional justice mechanisms like the Hybrid Court for South Sudan—remain unfulfilled. The transitional period has been extended multiple times, most recently pushing elections to December 2026.
By 2025, political crises intensified. In March, clashes in Upper Nile State displaced thousands. Machar’s house arrest and charges of treason further eroded the unity government. Aerial bombardments on opposition areas and recruitment drives have violated the permanent ceasefire.
Current Triggers: Renewed Clashes and Political Breakdown
The Troika’s warning coincides with reports of intensified fighting. Government forces (SSPDF) have conducted operations against SPLM-IO positions, including airstrikes on cantonment sites meant for unifying troops. Opposition splinter groups and communal militias have complicated the landscape.
The spillover from Sudan’s ongoing civil war adds fuel: over 1.2 million refugees and returnees have strained resources, while border incidents—like the brief RSF capture of the Heglig oil field—raise fears of broader regional involvement.
Humanitarian indicators are dire: 7.5 million people face acute food insecurity, with risks of famine in parts of the country. Corruption and mismanagement have diverted oil revenues, leaving civil servants unpaid and basic services donor-dependent.
UN reports describe a “sharp deterioration” in political and security conditions, with the peace process at a “breaking point.” The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has bolstered protection efforts, but monitors warn of a shift from sub-national violence to full-scale war involving signatories.
Implications: Humanitarian Catastrophe and Regional Instability
A return to widespread war would be catastrophic. South Sudan’s population of about 11 million is already among the most vulnerable globally. Renewed conflict could displace millions more, exacerbate famine, and trigger ethnic atrocities reminiscent of 2013-2016.
Regionally, instability could spill into Uganda, Ethiopia, and Kenya—countries hosting South Sudanese refugees—or entangle with Sudan’s war. Neighbors like Uganda have reportedly deployed troops, raising proxy war concerns.
Economically, disrupted oil production (South Sudan’s lifeline) would deepen poverty. Corruption rankings place it among the world’s worst, eroding public trust.
International Response and Calls for Action
The Troika’s unified voice aims to rally IGAD, the African Union, and neighbors. Previous statements have criticized extensions without progress, urging accountability.
UN experts and human rights commissions have called for expediting justice mechanisms and pressuring leaders. Aid agencies warn of funding shortfalls amid global crises.
Civil society in South Sudan demands inclusive dialogue, including women and youth, as stipulated in the R-ARCSS.
Path Forward: Urgent De-escalation and Implementation
The Troika emphasizes that leaders can still “reverse course” through concrete actions: ceasing attacks, releasing detainees, resuming dialogue, and prioritizing R-ARCSS benchmarks like army unification and electoral preparations.
If heeded, this could restore donor confidence and attract investment. Failure risks isolating South Sudan further, with threats of sanctions or aid cuts (as hinted by the U.S. recently over humanitarian obstructions).
As elections approach in 2026, the window for credible, peaceful polls narrows. The Troika’s message is clear: South Sudan’s leaders hold the future in their hands, but time is running out. For a nation born from hope, the cost of inaction is unthinkable—a relapse into the horrors of war that the 2018 agreement was meant to end forever
