The Fracturing of a Nation: Sudan Teeters on the Brink of Permanent Partition
By Juba Global News Network Political Desk
Date: December 17, 2025
PORT SUDAN/EL FASHER — The map of Sudan is being redrawn in blood and fire. This week marks a grim, perhaps irreversible, milestone in the twenty-month war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). With the fall of El Fasher—the army’s last stronghold in Darfur—and the RSF’s subsequent seizure of the strategic Heglig oilfield, the conflict has shifted from a battle for control of the state to a battle for the formation of two separate ones.
Analysts and diplomats are now openly using a term that was previously whispered only in worst-case scenarios: De Facto Partition.
The Fall of El Fasher: The Last Domino
For over a year, El Fasher stood as a besieged island of government control in a sea of RSF territory. As the capital of North Darfur, it was more than a city; it was the symbol of the state’s lingering authority in the west and a sanctuary for nearly two million displaced civilians.
That sanctuary has collapsed. Following a week of intensified bombardment that overwhelmed the SAF’s 6th Infantry Division, RSF forces, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”), declared full control of the city on Monday.
The scenes reported from the city are apocalyptic. Thousands of civilians, many already displaced multiple times, are fleeing north toward the Chadian border, a route fraught with danger. “There is no government left here,” said Dr. Ahmed Khalil, a surgeon at the now-defunct El Fasher Teaching Hospital, speaking via satellite phone. “The flag has changed, the laws have changed. We are effectively in a different country now.”
The capture of El Fasher consolidates Hemedti’s grip on the entirety of the Darfur region, giving the RSF a contiguous block of territory the size of France, stretching from the borders of Chad and the Central African Republic deep into central Sudan.
The Economic Kill Shot: Heglig Oilfield
If El Fasher was a symbolic and military blow, the loss of Heglig is an economic stranglehold. Located in South Kordofan, Heglig is vital to Sudan’s oil infrastructure. By seizing it, the RSF has not only secured a potential revenue stream for itself but has effectively severed the financial jugular of the SAF-led government based in Port Sudan.
Military strategist and regional analyst Dr. Koldit James warns that this move changes the calculus of the war entirely. “General Burhan’s government in Port Sudan relies on oil transit fees and exports to pay its soldiers and buy weapons,” James notes. “With Heglig in RSF hands, the SAF is now fighting a war on an empty tank. This forces the army to rely even more heavily on external backers, effectively turning the SAF-controlled east into a client state.”
The “Libya Scenario”
The current reality on the ground increasingly mirrors the situation in Libya, where rival governments rule east and west.
- The State of Port Sudan: In the east, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan presides over a government recognized by the UN and the African Union, controlling the Red Sea coast, the Nile River states, and parts of the east. It retains the trappings of sovereignty—embassies, the central bank, and the port—but lacks control over the country’s resources and vast interior.
- The State of Darfur/Khartoum: In the west and center, the RSF has established a semi-functioning military administration. They control the capital’s ruins, the gold mines of Darfur, and now, the oil of Kordofan.
“We are no longer looking at a civil war within one country,” says a senior diplomat at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa. “We are looking at a violently contested divorce. The center has not just failed to hold; it has ceased to exist.”
A Humanitarian “Perfect Storm”
While generals draw lines on maps, the people of Sudan are facing what UNICEF has called a “perfect storm” of catastrophe. The violence in South Kordofan and the seizure of Heglig have halted aid convoys moving south from the White Nile state.
Reports from the Nuba Mountains indicate that drone strikes—now a common feature of this war—have targeted humanitarian hubs, confusing them for military logistical sites. The result is a total blockade of medicine and food.
“We have 16 million children in the crosshairs,” stated UNICEF’s regional director earlier this week. “With the partition of territory comes the partition of aid access. Agencies in Port Sudan cannot reach RSF-held areas, and cross-border aid from Chad is insufficient and constantly harassed.”
The Regional Nightmare
The fall of Heglig has sent shockwaves specifically into South Sudan. Juba relies on the pipeline running through Heglig to export its own crude oil to the Red Sea. If the RSF decides to turn off the tap—or if the infrastructure is damaged in the fighting—South Sudan’s economy, which depends on oil for 90% of its revenue, could collapse overnight.
This places Juba in an impossible diplomatic bind: maintaining relations with the recognized Burhan government in Port Sudan while the RSF physically controls the pipeline necessary for their survival.
The Road Ahead
As 2025 draws to a close, the prospect of a unified Sudan seems more distant than ever. The international community, distracted by crises in Gaza, Ukraine, and the Congo, has offered little beyond statements of condemnation.
For the citizens of Sudan, the choice is no longer about who will rule them, but where they can survive. As the country cleaves in two, the “temporary” displacement camps are turning into permanent cities, and the borders of a new, fractured reality are hardening in the sand.
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