BREAKING: UAE Quits OPEC After 60 Years as Iran War Triggers Global Energy Crisis
Major Shift in Global Energy Markets
JUBA, South Sudan — In a seismic move that reshapes global energy politics, the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday announced it is quitting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) after 60 years of membership, effective May 1, 2026. The decision deals a heavy blow to the oil cartel and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia at a time of unprecedented turmoil in global energy markets.
The UAE, OPEC’s third-largest producer and one of its most compliant members, cited its long-term strategic and economic vision, seeking greater flexibility to increase oil production to meet rising global demand. Analysts say the departure removes roughly 15% of OPEC’s production capacity and strips the cartel of a key swing producer capable of stabilizing prices.
Iran War and Strait of Hormuz Crisis
The announcement comes amid the ongoing Iran conflict, which has severely disrupted Gulf oil shipments. Iranian forces have seized two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes. Brent crude has surged past $111 per barrel — up 82% since the start of 2026 — as supply fears intensify.
US President Donald Trump has warned Iran to “get smart soon” regarding a non-nuclear deal, posting on Truth Social as US aircraft carriers remain deployed in the region. The estimated cost of the conflict has already reached $25 billion.
Impact on Africa
For African nations, the crisis is already hitting home. South Africa’s National Treasury has extended emergency fuel levy relief as petrol prices soar. Kenya, Uganda, and other East African nations are bracing for higher import costs and potential fuel shortages. South Sudan, which relies on oil exports piped through Sudan, faces both risks and opportunities as global crude prices climb.
The UAE’s exit from OPEC could ultimately lead to higher production and lower prices in the medium term, but the immediate effect is heightened volatility. Saudi Arabia now carries an even greater burden of managing global supply amid a fractured cartel.
What Comes Next
The UAE will also exit the broader OPEC+ alliance. The move represents a historic realignment in Gulf geopolitics and has been welcomed by Washington as potentially increasing global oil supply. However, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively under siege and no ceasefire in sight, energy markets remain in uncharted territory.
This is a developing story. More updates to follow on JubaGlobal.
