Why South Sudan’s Past Still Haunts Its Future
OPINION ARTICLE BY Prof James Okuk
What’s unfolding in Nasir today ripples far beyond its borders, reaching Juba and beyond, stirring memories of the 2013 civil war that tore South Sudan apart. The devastation of that conflict—lives lost, communities shattered—should have taught our leaders something. Yet, it’s heartbreaking to see the political and military figures steering our security and governance still blind to those hard lessons.
The collegial presidency in Juba was meant to be a shining example: a system of teamwork, talks, and shared vision to lift the Republic of South Sudan toward peace and prosperity. Instead, we’ve watched it crumble into isolation, plotting, petty fights, betrayal, and the rewarding of failure. But why? Here are nine reasons digging at the roots of our crisis:
- A Shaky Start: The Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (RTGoNU) kicked off without unified forces in place, as promised in the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). Worse, the Council of Ministers had no clear plan to guide the nation.
- Rushed by Outsiders: Regional and international powers pushed government and opposition leaders to unite in Juba fast, even though trust and good faith in the R-ARCSS process were nowhere to be found.
- Forgotten Countryside: Rural civilians and organized forces were ignored, left to fend for themselves with whatever they could grab, fueling chaos.
- No Jobs, No Hope: Without real development projects or work programs, our restless youth—full of energy—turn to guns and militancy instead of farming or building a future.
- Tribal and Spiritual Decay: Chiefs and religious leaders have been dragged into politics, losing the trust and moral pull they once held over the people.
- Sudan’s Mess Spills Over: Chaos in Sudan—after President al-Bashir’s messy ousting—pitted the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), unsettling our region further.
- Cash Running Dry: Oil revenue has tanked, leaving RTGoNU broke, with public funds vanishing into private pockets or stashed under mattresses.
- Missed Peace Chance: The Tumaini Consensus Initiative in Nairobi fell apart in September 2024 after SPLM-IO delegates walked out, souring Kenya’s role as a peace guarantor and stalling progress.
- Political Games: Multi-party tricks, inside and out, stall elections. Those comfy in power see no rush, while SPLM wrestles with its own messy leadership handover.
These nine failures keep tormenting our liberators and so-called peacemakers in Juba. The White Army in Nasir mixing with SPLM-IO forces? That’s just a symptom of this bigger mess.
The collegial presidency experiment has flopped—it’s time to ditch it for a normal presidency, like the rest of the world uses. Recycling old, worn-out ideas—the “Dead Horse Theory”—won’t fix this. Our current leaders, whether in government or opposition, need to connect with the people in real ways. The people must organize, not for chaos, but with purpose, to take back their power and demand their rights.
Here’s the way forward: blend the Tumaini Protocols with the R-ARCSS, pulling the best from the 2005 Interim Constitution of Southern Sudan. Set elections for 2027 as the heart of a new transitional government’s plan. Oil money should fuel this, not disappear. We’ve got two years from 2025 to make it happen. Courage and sacrifice are the only way out.
South Sudan’s past doesn’t have to be its future—but only if we act.
